Share Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest By Doug Tenney, Leist Mercantile“Houston we have a problem here.” This is the original transmission from Apollo 13 on their mission to the moon in 1970. The quote was later shortened when the movie was released in 1995.The quote is highlighted today concerning U.S. corn planted acres for 2019. Since early May, numerous weekly crop progress reports indicated corn planting progress severely behind normal. Last night’s report had the U.S. corn planting progress at 83%, which is a record low for this date. Earlier in March, USDA estimated the U.S. would plant 92.8 million corn acres for 2019. Simple math indicates 15.8 million corn acres are not yet planted. The eastern Corn Belt of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan still has 7.46 million acres of corn yet to be planted. The harsh reality is, it won’t all get planted. Northwest and western Ohio have been hit hard with the rains of May and June. There are areas where nothing is planted. Fall delivery corn basis levels have improved in Ohio 7 to 20 cents in the past three weeks.Acres, yields, and ending stocks are numbers to watch today. Corn acres were cut 3 million acres, the yield was reduced 10 bushels per acre, with ending stocks cut 810 million bushels.Following the report corn was up 9 cents, soybeans up 3 cents, and wheat up 8 cents. Just before the report release corn and soybeans were down six cents while wheat was down two cents.For weeks there has been continual discussion of corn acres which would not be planted, or “prevented planted” acres. At Mid-May this number had been estimated to reach 4 million to 6 million acres. It has only risen higher in the weeks that followed. Producers can receive a prevented planting payment with their crop insurance. For simplicity sake, it is a discussion between producer and their crop insurance agent as producers evaluate their own farming operation. Each operation is unique and “doing what your neighbor does” is not good advice.Producers have seen quite a roller coaster ride in the grain markets this past month. On May 10, the USDA Supply and Demand Report provided negative numbers. Since mid-May, when December 2019 CBOT corn fell to $3.64 and rallied to $4.54 on May 29. Since then, December corn fell to $4.25 as weather conditions permitted planting progress to finally taking place. Earlier today, December CBOT corn was trading at $4.28, down six cents. This decline results from the good and excellent totals from last night of 59%, higher than expected. In that same time frame, November soybeans fell to $8.16 mid-May and rallied to $9.12. This morning November soybeans were $8.78, down eight cents.The rally this past month was all weather or supply driven due to wet planting conditions with slow corn and soybean planting progress. Supply driven rallies are often extremely volatile with wide daily trading ranges, ending much sooner than expected. With this type of rally, the term “Short crop, long tail,” was born. The short crop results in a price spike which is often followed by months of price declines or the “tail.”Many have expected USDA to reduce demand for the 2019 corn, soybeans, and wheat tables. The huge unknowns are corn acres and corn yield. Some have suggested we will not see corn acres reduced drastically with this report in spite of the growing corn prevented planting acres. Others have indicated we won’t get an accurate picture until the August 12 USDA monthly report.Closely watch how much of a decline is shown for U.S. corn acres with this report.Today’s advice: Don’t forget to tighten your seat belt a few more notches for the ride the next two months in the markets. Huge price volatility will be seen.
Share on WhatsApp Share via Email Tottenham Hotspur Match previews news Share on Facebook Share on LinkedIn Topics Share on Twitter Premier League Share on Pinterest Manchester City Share on Messenger Manchester City have not beaten Tottenham Hotspur since May 2015, which means Pep Guardiola is yet to defeat Mauricio Pochetinno’s side since taking over. The smart money, though, says Saturday will be the day as City are 18 points better off and flying. If Spurs can worry the home side through pace, though, as Liverpool did in September before Sadio Mané’s sending off, they may have a chance of handing City a first league defeat. Jamie JacksonKick-off Saturday 5.30pm Venue Etihad StadiumLast season Man City 2 Tottenham 2Live BT Sport 1Referee Craig PawsonThis season G13, Y44, R4, 3.69 cards per gameOdds H 4-7 A 5-1 D 4-1Manchester CitySubs from Bravo, Touré, Adarabioyo, Díaz, B Silva, Danilo, Jesus, Foden, Gündogan, KompanyDoubtful Kompany (match fitness)Injured Stones (hamstring, Jan), Mendy (knee, Apr)Suspended NoneForm WWWWWWDiscipline Y29 R2Leading scorer Agüero 10Tottenham HotspurSubs from Vorm, Gazzaniga, Aurier, Walker-Peters, Rose, Foyth, Sissoko, Nkoudou, Lamela, LlorenteDoubtful NoneInjured Alderweireld (hamstring, Feb), Wanyama (knee, unknown)Suspended Sánchez (last of three)Form LDLDWWDiscipline Y19 R2Leading scorer Kane 12 Reuse this content
Barcelona ace Messi: I want to work again with Guardiolaby Paul Vegas10 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveBarcelona ace Leo Messi admits he’d like to again work with Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola.Guardiola and Messi won the Champions League together at Barca.And Messi’s latest comments could give fans slight hope that they may see him in a City shirt after all, even if he was hinting at a reunion at the Nou Camp.He told Marca: “Although it is difficult, I would like to work with Guardiola again. He is one of the best coaches in the world.”That’s why I would like [him to come back], but I’m telling you that I see it as complicated.” TagsTransfersAbout the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say
Everybody likes to cheer for the underdog, but hardly anyone bets on the underdog to win. We tend to put our money on the favorite most of the time. In fact, we bet on the favorite far more frequently than we should. To understand why, you have to understand some of the basic functions and malfunctions of human decision-making.Filling out a winning March Madness bracket is difficult, but the process itself is simple. All you have to do is pick a winner for each game in your bracket. Most of the time, sports betting is more complicated than that. It’s easy enough to pick the favorite to win, but what if we were to say the favorite has to win by at least eight points? And what if that eight-point spread were carefully crafted to make the game a toss-up — who would you pick then? This is the type of decision sports bettors have to make all the time.In 2004, University of Chicago economist Steven Levitt identified the fact that point spreads aren’t set like typical market prices, by equating relative levels of supply and demand. Instead, bookmakers set the margin to make the chance of the favorite covering the spread to be roughly 50 percent. Levitt speculated that bookmakers substantially improve their profits by biasing the spread very slightly against the favorite. This approach is profitable for bookmakers in part because, despite facing virtually even odds, people are much more likely to bet on the favorite than the underdog.The question that Levitt’s research left unaddressed is why people show such a strong bias towards favorites. As digital editor of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, I come across many studies, and I found a compelling answer to this question in the research of Joseph Simmons, associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, and Leif Nelson, associate professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. Simmons and Nelson say that people’s confidence in their own intuitions — regardless of whether that confidence is justified — guides their decision-making.“When people decide how to bet on a game, first they identify who is going to win,” Nelson said. That decision is often fast and easy, particularly when teams are not evenly matched. “The faster and easier it is, the less concerned they are with correcting that intuition when answering the more difficult question of whether the favorite is going to beat the point spread.”For all but the most experienced bettor, determining whether the favorite will beat the spread is incredibly challenging. Keeping in mind that the spread is carefully calibrated to make the choice a virtual coin flip, people simply don’t have much to go on besides their intuition. And because their intuition strongly suggests that the favorite will win, in the absence of information to the contrary it also tells them that the favorite will beat the spread. In a game between two fairly evenly matched teams, people’s feelings of confidence in the favorite to win are diminished, and they’re much less likely to pick the favorite to cover the spread.Simmons and Nelson analyzed betting data on 1,008 regular season NFL games on Sportsbook.com from 2009 to 2012. They found the average share of money bet on the favorite was 65 percent. This confirmed their initial study in which they tracked data from thousands of predictions of 850 professional and college football games on Yahoo.com for the 2003 and 2004 seasons. There Simmons and Nelson found, just as Levitt did, that even though favorites were about 50 percent likely to beat the spread (413 favorites beat the spread, 415 did not, and 22 were ties), people bet on the favorite more than two-thirds of the time. In fact, the more people believed a certain team would win, the more likely they were to also choose that team to beat the spread. Put another way, the confidence bettors felt in picking the winner translated into an unrelated belief that the winner would beat the spread.Simmons and Nelson also ran a series of studies in a controlled laboratory setting. They made sure that people knew exactly what it meant to bet the spread. In addition to asking people who they thought would win the game and how confident they were in their choice, the researchers asked them to estimate the margin of victory. Remarkably, people continued to overwhelmingly bet that the favorite would cover the same spread they had just personally estimated. And, once again, the more confident people felt that a team would win, the more likely they were to bet that the team would beat the spread.Astute gamblers may have noticed that although the bias towards favorites is a persistent one, it doesn’t appear to cost people very much. If the point spread is calibrated to give favorites a 50 percent chance of beating it, then even if people bet on the favorite every time, they should win half their bets, just as they would if they always bet on the underdog or chose at random. In another paper, however, Simmons and Nelson, along with Jeff Galak of Carnegie Mellon University and Shane Frederick of Yale University, found that favoritism towards favorites persists even when the playing field is tilted in favor of the underdog. People continued to show a bias toward picking favorites to cover the spread even when points were added to the spread dropping the favorites’ odds below 50 percent. Even explicitly telling people that the spread was artificially inflated didn’t stop them from making the costly error.Luckily, as you scramble to fill out your March Madness bracket, you don’t have to pick against spreads. You just have to pick who will win each game, something your intuition is pretty good at doing. So, in this case, go right ahead: Follow your gut and pick the favorites.
Freshman Colby Miller poses during her mount for her balance beam routine during the Ohio State gymnastics meet against West Virginia University and Temple University in St. John Arena on March 2. Credit: Anna Ripken | For The LanternThe Women’s Gymnastics team took on West Virginia University and Temple University on March 2 at St John Arena. Photos by Anna Ripken
Newly promoted Cardiff City marked their return to the top flight with a 2-0 defeat against Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday afternoonBournemouth dominated possession and deservedly took the lead in the 24th- minute as Scotland international Fraser latched on to Wilson’s low pass inside the penalty area and slotted past goalkeeper Neil Etheridge.Wilson failed to double the advantage from the spot as his weak effort was comfortably saved by Etheridge, following a clumsy challenge by Cardiff defender Bruno Ecuele Manga.The Bluebirds showed attacking intent after the break and had a couple of chances to equalize but failed to take their chances.However, Wilson made amends for his first miss with a stoppage time goal that ended the hopes of an equaliser thanks to defender Simon Francis’ cross from close range.Match Preview: Bournemouth vs Manchester City Boro Tanchev – August 24, 2019 English champions Manchester City travel to Bournemouth for their encounter of the third Premier League Matchday.Bournemouth take on West Ham United at the London Stadium next Saturday afternoon, while, Cardiff face Newcastle at the Cardiff City Stadium in their first home match on their return to the top flight.FULL-TIME Bournemouth 2-0 CardiffGoals in each half from Ryan Fraser and Callum Wilson get Bournemouth off to a winning #PL start against promoted Cardiff#BOUCAR pic.twitter.com/boDCHXQm2X— Premier League (@premierleague) August 11, 2018
According to reports, Eden Hazard has told Chelsea that he will not extend contract unless they qualify for the Champions League.Hazard had been linked with a move to European Champions Real Madrid all summer.Madrid since losing Ronaldo to Juventus have been looking to sign a quality replacement and the Belgian is top of their list.Hazard had initially talked about his desire to leave Stamford Bridge but announced recently he would be staying this year.Chelsea hat-trick hero Tammy Abraham hopes for more Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Tammy Abraham hopes this season will be his big breakthrough at Chelsea after firing his first hat-trick for the club in Saturday’s 5-2 win at Wolves.“For the moment, I am happy,” said Hazard. “I have two more years of contract and we will see what will happen.“Leave this year? I will not leave. I’m fine here, we’ll see what happens in a year or two.”Chelsea now have a contract on the table for the playmaker, reportedly worth £300,000-a-week on a five-year deal but there are no indications that this contract will be signed.And according to The Sun, Hazard will only think about signing a new deal if Chelsea finishes top 4 in the Premier League this year.
Real Madrid Coach Santiago Solari believes he is managing a fantastic and humble squad in response to Cristiano Ronaldo’s claims that Juventus are more of a familyThe former Manchester United playmaker left Los Blancos in the summer, and yesterday he stated in an interview he made a stunning assertion that the Bianconeris are more of a humble, family atmosphere in comparison to Madrid.However, Solari has come out to state clearly that Real Madrid can boast of a similar atmosphere and camaraderie.Mourinho: “Lionel Messi made me a better coach” Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Jose Mourinho believes the experience of going up against Barcelona superstar Lionel Messi at Real Madrid made him a greater coach.“Humility is a virtue that top players need, and at Real Madrid, we’ve got a fantastic, humble squad,” Solari responded in his Press conference as cited by Football Italia ahead of the CSKA Moscow game.“When it comes to every one of the values bound up in sport, this is a top group of players.“Cristiano will always be special to this club, he went down in its history, and it’s not down to anyone to judge the way he feels; that’s something personal to him.”
Former Celtic striker Chris Sutton believes they could pay the ultimate price if rivals Rangers sign Dominic Solanke from LiverpoolThe out-of-favour Reds forward is being linked with a move to Ibrox in the January transfer window in order to get more game time.At 21 years old, Solanke remains highly-rated and could provide Rangers with a boost up front with the Glasgow club struggling to threaten Hibernian in last week’s 0-0 draw.And Sutton fears Celtic could find themselves at a disadvantage if Rangers do manage to sign Solanke and urged the club’s recruitment chief Lee Congerton to deliver.Crouch: Liverpool could beat Man United to Jadon Sancho Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Peter Crouch wouldn’t be surprised to see Jadon Sancho end up at Liverpool one day instead of his long-term pursuers Manchester United.“This is crunch time for Congerton as he needs to deliver a dossier of top-quality strikers in January for his manager to pick from or Celtic run the risk of throwing away the league,” Sutton wrote in his Daily Record column.“I have been critical of him in the past but this really is the time for him to step up and earn his money at Parkhead.“Never mind this week’s big games, the Premiership could be won and lost in January. If Rangers find the cash to bring in someone like Dominic Solanke and Celtic dither again, they will pay the ultimate price. ”